The Academy Awards are a funny thing for people who love movies. I find myself caring a lot about what wins while also recognizing it’s all exceedingly meaningless and, even in its best moments, doesn’t reflect my own taste in movies. I ranked every new release I saw in 2021, and four of my six favorites didn’t receive a single nomination here. So, again, why do I care?
I care because I love movies and love celebrating the people who manage to make good ones. And I care because the Oscars love to be stupid and dramatic and I am not above laughing at that.
More and more this show is becoming a relic of a time in which I never existed—a time when movies were our primary source of culture and everyone in America went to the theater to see whatever mid-budget film Kevin Spacey just starred in. That all seems so alien now, but this dumb show endures despite it.
I watched every movie nominated in the following categories (aside from the two denoted with an asterisk). I’m ready for the show. Here’s to the incoming feel-good moments and inevitable mistakes. I love it all.
Production Design
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
This category feels deeper than in most years, and I don’t think there’s a bad choice here. Even the presumptive long shot (Tragedy of Macbeth) felt like somewhat of a masterpiece of design and construction.
My appreciation for Dune exists mostly in those tiny details and brutalist sets. Nightmare Alley is also excellent here and really a 1b on my personal list. Given that film’s slightly more traditional design approach I think it takes the crown.
I think: Nightmare Alley
I hope: Dune
Cinematography
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
This one is going to Dune. Greig Fraser had an enormous task on his plate in depicting what’s been seen as an infamously impossible world to capture on screen. What’s funny is that he turned around and worked on The Batman after Dune and I think did an even better job there. What an incredible year he’s had.
It don’t think it stands a chance, but my vote here goes to The Tragedy of Macbeth. While the others on this list are deserving, this is a film that almost seemed to invent a style of cinematography. My enjoyment of this movie exists entirely in the way it was shot, which feels like an achievement on its own. Its relegation to long-shot status feels a little bit like the unwritten rule that the NBA’s MVP has to be on a good team. The Tragedy of Macbeth wasn’t the year’s biggest or best movie, but the cinematography is easily the best of 2021.
I think: Dune
I hope: The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Animated Feature
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. The Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
It feels like Encanto (a perfectly good movie) has caught the largest groundswell of animated movie buzz since Frozen. Whether or not that translates to Academy recognition remains to be seen, but I think it has unstoppable momentum.
Flee (a very heavy animated documentary) and The Mitchells vs. The Machines (an offbeat Lord & Miller romp) are right there for the feel-good underdog upset, which makes me a little ashamed to be pulling for annual frontrunner Pixar.
I’ve been on the Luca hype train since day one. It was one of my ten favorite movies of 2021 and one of my favorite Pixar films ever. No, it doesn’t have the same narrative heft as any of the other movies in this category, but that’s actually why I like it. At some point in the last couple decades, animated children’s movies got awfully heavy. Luca is a sun-splashed zag in the opposite direction.
I think: Encanto
I hope: Luca
Best International Feature
Drive My Car (Japan)
Flee (Denmark)
The Hand of God (Italy)
Lunana: A Yak In The Classroom* (Bhutan)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
This feels like the best International Feature class… ever? Or at least in recent memory. Drive My Car, remarkably, earned itself a Best Picture nomination. As the Academy has expanded and diversified its voting body, I sure hope these types of nominations continue, because they have an impact. I saw Drive My Car on opening day in Cincinnati and there were more people in the theater than a lot of movies I saw last year. A three-hour Japanese movie! Getting the people going in Ohio!
The Worst Person in the World, also nominated for Best Original Screenplay, feels like it’s taken up the mantle as Best Movie of 2021 as decided by The Discourse™. It deserves the title. I think it’s the most mainstream-ready international feature since Parasite, and hopefully its seepage across the country continues, buoyed by a big Oscar night.
Flee, also nominated for Best Animated Feature and Best Documentary, is the most “important” one in this category. It’s a groundbreaking (and heartbreaking) story that unfortunately feels only increasingly relevant.
Completely boxed out in all of this is The Hand of God, a movie I heard nothing about and therefore was the most exciting of any in this crowded field. It doesn’t stand a chance at winning this award, but it’s phenomenal for what’s likely to be the fourth-place finisher in International Feature. If you like coming-of-age movies, you can’t miss it. It’s on Netflix.
I think: Drive My Car
I hope: The Hand of God
Supporting Actor
Ciarán Hinds (Belfast)
Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)
J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos)
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
What a weird category. Kodi Smit-McPhee has sort of been the frontrunner since day one. Conventional Oscar wisdom would tell you a co-star being nominated in the same category would likely lead to vote splitting and cost him the crown… except Jesse Plemons is so out of place here that I don’t see that as much of a threat. I have no idea why he’s nominated, but it’s not as bewildering as J.K. Simmons’ appearance. He’s being recognized for being the fourth most important character in a mediocre movie.
This boils down to Smit-McPhee vs. Kotsur, and I actually think Kotsur’s momentum (he won at the SAG Awards) combined with some potential voter fatigue for The Power of the Dog could flip the script. Kotsur is a feel-good story of this awards season, and it’s cool seeing CODA continue to defy expectations on the circuit.
I think: Troy Kotsur (CODA)
I hope: Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Supporting Actress
Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter)
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Judi Dench (Belfast)
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)
Maybe the category I’m least excited about this year. I actually thought each of these movies were good, but neither West Side Story, Belfast, nor King Richard really tug at my heartstrings, and Buckley and Dunst’s performances were not what I loved most about their (very good) movies.
What’s left is a grouping I have no emotional attachment to, especially considering Ariana DeBose feels like the presumptive winner.
I think: Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
I hope: Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter)
Lead Actor
Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
Andrew Garfield (tick, tick…BOOM!)
Will Smith (King Richard)
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
I think Will Smith is going to win here, so let’s start this off with something King Richard made me realize: I don’t think I actually like Will Smith as an actor. His is a career that’s been micromanaged to the point of boredom. His most famous career choice is probably turning down the role of Neo in The Matrix. While this decision probably allowed that movie to become iconic, I think a rejection that says more about his career is passing on the title character in Tarantino’s Django Unchained. He said he did so because he wouldn’t have been the film’s lead, a kind of backwards thinking that serves as an example of how an A-list actor went more than a decade without making a well-received movie and 15 years between Oscar nominations. I found King Richard to be surprisingly effective, but rallying behind Will Smith in an awards race is so boring. He’s building a career without an ounce of creative ambition.
I think a fun way to look at awards races is not to look for which of your favorite performers turned in another strong showing, but which actors were able to change your opinion of them. That’s happened twice in this category for me, first with Andrew Garfield in tick, tick…BOOM! It’s not that I’ve disliked him, but I’ve never fully realized his talent and versatility until he successfully got me to enjoy a Lin-Manuel Miranda-directed musical. That’s powerful stuff.
But my personal favorite for Lead Actor is Benedict Cumberbatch. I have actively disliked virtually all of his work, but The Power of the Dog is a towering performance and that kind of swing from negative to positive sentiment is too much to ignore.
I think: Will Smith (King Richard)
I hope: Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
Lead Actress
Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
Penélope Cruz* (Parallel Mothers)
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)
Kristen Stewart (Spencer)
I don’t totally understand the appeal of Being The Ricardos or The Eyes of Tammy Faye, but Kidman is a force and Chastain (who won at the SAG Awards) may be due for a trophy. Then again, how can you bet against Olivia Colman in any awards show? Although maybe her recent run of success actually makes her less likely. On top of all that, I didn’t even make it to Parallel Mothers, so maybe Cruz has a surprise win in her.
I have no idea what’s going to happen here, but I know what I want to happen. Kristen Stewart has been my pick in this category since the moment my showing of Spencer ended. She has been oddly snubbed at many other shows this season, but she managed to hold her ground and receive an Oscar nod. I think she has a chance to spring the upset.
I think: Kristen Stewart (Spencer)
I hope: Kristen Stewart (Spencer)
Adapted Screenplay
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
The Power of the Dog represents a ready-made Oscar choice here. It’s a neo-Western (anti-Western?) with modern relevance and a sturdy structure. Especially in this category, it seems like almost a gimme. (My confidence here is sure to blow up in my face, but I love all the movies nominated so I’d be happy with any surprises.)
I think: The Power of the Dog
I hope: The Power of the Dog
Original Screenplay
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Worst Person in the World
With some notable exceptions, Best Original Screenplay has frequently served as the Oscars’ cool kids table. Not only is this a place where great writing is celebrated, but it’s often a place where the Academy has been able to award exciting movies that didn’t have the gas to win the Best Picture race. The Oscars are not often cool, but this category consistently gets closest.
Licorice Pizza and The Worst Person in the World serve as this year’s flag bearers. The former was my favorite movie of the year and the latter—which I wasn’t able to watch until 2022—likely would’ve finished second. Paul Thomas Anderson is incredibly overdue for an Oscar but a win for The Worst Person in the World would also make me happy.
Any deviation from these two would be a disaster. Belfast and King Richard were just fine but far too lame to hang with the rest of the crowd, and Don’t Look Up was terrible.
Don’t let me down, Academy. I think they will.
I think: Belfast
I hope: Licorice Pizza
Best Picture
Belfast - If Oscar bait still exists, this is it. I didn’t hate Belfast, but it didn’t give me much to fall for either. I think Kenneth Branagh is a figure who commands a lot of respect in Hollywood, and he’s yet to earn his first Oscar. An autobiographical story, cast in perfect black and white, seems like the underdog favorite. Yet I’d almost prefer a disastrous selection to something as uninspired as choosing this would be.
CODA - Here’s a fun counterbalance to Belfast. Similarly, this is not my favorite movie on the list, following a pretty familiar structure and broadly heartwarming ethos. The difference here is that CODA is a true underdog story and contains just enough special sauce and strong writing to elevate it to the status of a fun contender. CODA might have a shot here, and even though I’m not doing backflips for it as a movie, it would be a great Oscar night story.
Don’t Look Up - If this wins it may lead me to a psychotic break. I have seen close to ninety 2021 movies and this didn’t crack the top 80. Yet a movie I hated this much winning Best Picture would certainly be exciting, so it’s a good chance to remember that the Oscars are, at the end of the day, silly entertainment. Don’t Look Up springing the upset would certainly qualify in that sense.
Drive My Car - This has no chance to win, but its appearance still serves as one of the year’s best feel-good stories. A three-hour Japanese slow-burner appearing on this stage is a testament to the changes this show has undergone recently. The audience for Drive My Car is admittedly narrow, but this should allow it to find every last member of that tiny slice of the population, and I think that’s awesome.
Dune - If this story wins this award, it will be for Part 2. Dune was really cool, but it’s hard to get too invested in the first part of a film franchise winning Hollywood’s biggest prize.
King Richard - A perfectly fine movie that predictably finds itself here. And like with Belfast, that predictability makes it a boring choice in a field containing exciting options.
Licorice Pizza - This is my favorite movie of 2022, but Paul Thomas Anderson is one of my favorite directors and, when he finally wins Best Picture, I’d love if it were for one of his stronger efforts.
Nightmare Alley - It seems strange to call a Best Picture nominee a surprise, but I found Nightmare Alley to be pretty great, from its craft to its performances to its screenplay. This is an all-around winner and perhaps the type of movie that, while it won’t win Best Picture, can remain in the public consciousness for years to come as one of 2021’s best.
The Power of the Dog - The presumptive favorite, and it makes perfect sense why. In a lot of ways I think this embodies what a modern Best Picture winner looks like. The bones of this feel tried and true, but there’s a lot of really unique things happening between the lines while still playing within them. This isn’t really a challenging movie, it just does its thing and does it extremely well.
West Side Story - As if anyone doubted him, Spielberg make the heck out of this movie, bringing his whole Spielberg thing to a movie perfectly ripe for just that. But the original West Side Story won Best Picture in 1962. Why would anyone want the same story to win the award a second time?
I think: The Power of the Dog
I hope: The Power of the Dog