It’s time. I’ve been training the last 16 months for this moment: The 93rd Academy Awards are here, and they are less relevant than ever.
If plummeting awards show ratings weren’t indication enough about how America feels about this exercise, a pandemic ripped the release schedule clean in half. The biggest blockbuster that came out last year was [squints] Soul? Tenet? I’d wager there’s a decent segment of Americans that didn’t watch a single movie released in 2020, or at least since the pandemic began. That is not me. I’ve seen close to 60 movies that were edible for these Oscars.
Is the wavering interest in these Academy Awards warranted? Honestly, yeah, maybe. I’m a freak for this stuff and I’ll admit 2020 wasn’t nearly as good as the average year, much less 2019. Plus we’re almost to May. I simply cannot handle another week of thinking about movies that came out more than a year ago. Lockdowns have felt a bit like Groundhog Day to begin with, and being trapped in a never-ending 2020 movie cycle has not helped.
SPEAKING OF GROUNDHOG DAY, let’s kick this off with movies that won’t be recognized here due to the Academy’s incompetence.
Snubs
Palm Springs, a Groundhog Day built for 2020, was my favorite movie of last year, period. Yes, some of it was timing, but the more I watched Andy Samberg and Christin Milioti run around that desert, the more I realized how legitimately well-made it was. While the depth of my love for this movie is irrational and boundless, I can easily justify its worthiness of Oscar love, and can’t fathom why it’s not being honored this weekend.
Boys State is my favorite documentary since 2018’s Free Solo and it wasn’t even nominated. In some backwards way I can understand how maybe the Academy has an unwritten stigma against “pop docs” invading their documentary races, but the aforementioned Free Solo (by all accounts just as popular and fun as Boys State) actually won the award in 2019. I don’t know what’s happening here. Boys State is the best documentary of 2020.
I’m Thinking of Ending Things, First Cow, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, and The Assistant were all really lovely in their own ways. I can stomach a couple of these not being nominated, but the entire group being collectively shut out is pretty wild to me.
That’s probably enough hand-wringing about a show I’ve already admitted to being excited for. Let’s get to the races.
Cinematography
NOMINEES
JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
Sean BobbittMANK
Erik MesserschmidtNEWS OF THE WORLD
Dariusz WolskiNOMADLAND
Joshua James RichardsTHE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
Phedon Papamichael
I’ll just say I think this is a Nomadland win, and I can’t fault that. For as quaint and internal as the story is, the imagery is anything but. It’s a beautiful depiction of the sprawling American west. As grief and tragedy drives our character inward, the lens only grows wider. Great stuff!
Much like the point I’m about to make in the Original Score race, I’m pulling for Mank because I’m fascinated with the way it modernizes something very classic. The color grading (or lack thereof) is precisely ancient but it’s applied to something that doesn’t feel entirely out of place in 2021. Moreover, I just don’t think Mank is going to get many wins, so I hope Fincher gets a couple in lesser races.
My wish: Mank
My guess: Nomadland
Music (Original Score)
NOMINEES
DA 5 BLOODS
Terence BlanchardMANK
Trent Reznor and Atticus RossMINARI
Emile MosseriNEWS OF THE WORLD
James Newton HowardSOUL
Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste
Score is not something I typically take note of unless it’s particularly unique, exceptionally good, or totally absent. In fact, I have so few thoughts about this that I’m only writing about it because there was a snub here. Say what you will about Tenet (it’s not one of Christopher Nolan’s best), but the score is stellar. When I first saw the movie, not only did I think it was a likely nominee, I felt it was the frontrunner. I don’t know why it’s not here.
In its absence, Soul feels like the beneficiary. It’s a movie about music, and I think this is its chance to get a win outside of the animation category. However, my personal choice goes to another Reznor and Ross production. Mank, in its construction, is designed to function like a modern movie with a look and feel more akin to its early-’40s inspiration. The score is no different. It feels like a classic film score updated for 2021, which is great and worthy of recognition.
My wish: Mank
My guess: Soul
Actress in a Supporting Role
NOMINEES
MARIA BAKALOVA
Borat Subsequent MoviefilmGLENN CLOSE
Hillbilly ElegyOLIVIA COLMAN
The FatherAMANDA SEYFRIED
MankYUH-JUNG YOUN
Minari
I like this race because my favorites—Bakalova, Seyfried, Youn—were each the best parts of their respective movies, despite being in supporting roles. Those three are all both deserving and new, in terms of awards.
For the longest time, I thought this would be the year’s black eye. We seemed poised for some good, old-fashioned Academy politics. Glenn Close’s Hillbilly Elegy character was, quite frankly, one of the worst things I saw in 2020. But Close is also arguably the best actress to never receive an Oscar. And, if the Academy likes her enough to nominate her for this role, surely they like her enough to give her the win.
But I think Yuh-Jung Youn has simply too much momentum at this point, and I think she’s edged into the lead at the perfect moment. I hope I am not setting myself up for disappointment here.
My wish: Yuh-Jung Youn
My guess: Yuh-Jung Youn
Actress in a Leading Role
NOMINEES
VIOLA DAVIS
Ma Rainey's Black BottomANDRA DAY
The United States vs. Billie HolidayVANESSA KIRBY
Pieces of a WomanFRANCES MCDORMAND
NomadlandCAREY MULLIGAN
Promising Young Woman
With apologies to Andra Day and Vanessa Kirby, their films are literally the only blank spaces I have in this entire blog post. I’ve watched every other film I’ll discuss here but those two, so take my opinion in this category with a grain of salt.
I think this might be a Frances McDormand win, and if it is, she’ll have three Oscars for her performances as a lead actress. It would move her into a tie for 2nd place with Daniel Day-Lewis in Leading Role awards, trailing only Katharine Hepburn. History!
If anyone’s going to disrupt this, it’s Viola Davis. In an effort to keep this interesting, I’m actually going to pick her. She’s extremely deserving.
My wish: Frances McDormand
My guess: Viola Davis
Actor in a Supporting Role
NOMINEES
SACHA BARON COHEN
The Trial of the Chicago 7DANIEL KALUUYA
Judas and the Black MessiahLESLIE ODOM, JR.
One Night in Miami...PAUL RACI
Sound of MetalLAKEITH STANFIELD
Judas and the Black Messiah
This category has some intrigue. Will Lakeith Stanfield’s surprise nomination steal some votes from Daniel Kaluuya? Will Sacha Baron Cohen’s appearance in two Oscar-nominated films allow him to ride the hype to a win? Is the Academy ready to anoint Leslie Odom Jr., fresh off his role in Hamilton, the next great screen actor?
While each of these narratives seem possible, none of them seem likely. I think Kaluuya is going to be very difficult to stop. The guy just turned 32. I think his crowning moment has arrived. His performance as Fred Hampton is absolutely deserving of praise, and he’s a guy you like to see succeed.
Having said all that, Paul Raci in Sound of Metal is my dream winner. In a vacuum, giving an award to Raci before giving one to Kaluuya is very difficult to defend. But amidst a pandemic that led to the thinning of new movies, the window is open for surprise winners and upsets more than it would be in a normal year. Kaluuya will be back, but this may be Raci’s best chance. His performance may be the only of 2020 that made me think, “Who is this guy and how have I never seen him before?” Much like Parasite a year ago, the fact that he’s even in this position is reward enough, but I’d love to see him go all the way.
My wish: Paul Raci
My guess: Daniel Kaluuya
Actor in a Leading Role
NOMINEES
RIZ AHMED
Sound of MetalCHADWICK BOSEMAN
Ma Rainey's Black BottomANTHONY HOPKINS
The FatherGARY OLDMAN
MankSTEVEN YEUN
Minari
As is usually the case with this category, it’s totally stacked. There isn’t a performance here that feels unworthy or lesser. I think my least favorite movie on this list is The Father, and even then Anthony Hopkins was just fantastic.
Chadwick Boseman's Oscar was locked up on the day of his shocking death. It's just how the Academy Awards work. But, after finally watching Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, I'm pleased to find out he'd have been nominated anyway. This isn't my favorite movie he's been in, but it's my favorite performance of his, and these trenchant monologues take on new meaning now that we know what he was dealing with privately. His character here is angry, and I can't help but wonder how much of that fire he was drawing from his own senseless battle with cancer––something nobody should have to deal with, especially a 43-year-old with the whole world in front of him.
My wish: Chadwick Boseman
My guess: Chadwick Boseman
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM
THE FATHER
NOMADLAND
ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI...
THE WHITE TIGER
I love seeing The White Tiger here. It’s a movie I de-prioritized on my watchlist because of the total lack of buzz. I finally watched it, and I think it’s both fun and has something to say. It’s not winning, but its appearance here makes me happy because it’s another sign the Academy is capable of expanding its vision to allow for true underdogs in key races—a little something out of left field that may not be truly in the race but could pour a little fuel on the fire of a lesser-known filmmaker.
My favorite in this category was not even nominated. Mank, written by director David Fincher’s late father Jack, was a dense but beautiful movie, bolstered by a screenplay I loved. In addition to simply being deserving, it would’ve been a wonderful narrative.
While I didn’t adore The Father, I respect what it was able to accomplish. In my mind it’s probably jostling with Nomadland for this award, but I’ll give The Father the edge to mix it up. It’s a movie that feels suited for the Academy so maybe this will be its token win.
My wish: The Father
My guess: The Father
Writing (Original Screenplay)
JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
MINARI
PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
SOUND OF METAL
THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
Aaron Sorkin is the frontrunner for The Trial of the Chicago 7, a movie I felt was fine but not as exciting as the others listed here. It’s prime “Oscar Bait” (if such a thing still exists), yet I don’t see it winning any other categories in which it’s nominated. This leaves it Original Screenplay, almost by default.
My issue comes when you consider this is also the “consolation prize” category for movies like Minari, Promising Young Woman, and Sound of Metal. I expect to see four movies fighting for scraps in this category, and I predict the winner will be my least favorite among the four. Such is life.
My wish: Minari
My guess: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Directing
NOMINEES
ANOTHER ROUND
Thomas VinterbergMANK
David FincherMINARI
Lee Isaac ChungNOMADLAND
Chloé ZhaoPROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
Emerald Fennell
For the first time in Academy Awards history, two female directors are nominated for Directing, and I think one of them will win it. Chloé Zhao will become just the second woman to take home a trophy in this category. Nomadland isn’t my favorite movie nominated this year, but it’s not far off, and its awards success has seemed inevitable since its festival debut.
I also want to point out how remarkable it is to see Emerald Fennell’s name here for her first feature. Promising Young Woman is far from perfect, but it’s very entertaining and stylistically distinctive. I can’t imagine this is the last we’ll see of her.
Perhaps the most surprising nomination in the entire show is Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round. Between Vinterberg’s lack of awards track record, the movie’s foreign-language distinction, and the relative lack of mainstream buzz, I never dreamed of seeing it here. It’s not my favorite in this category, but it’s a great “happy to be here” nomination.
My wish: Nomadland
My guess: Nomadland
Best Picture
NOMINEES
THE FATHER
JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
MANK
MINARI
NOMADLAND
PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
SOUND OF METAL
THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
Well, here we go. As much as some of these other categories tend to feel set in stone year after year, Best Picture is becoming a bit hard to pin down these days, which is great.
There isn’t a bad choice here, which seems obvious but isn’t always the case. (I suppose a Trial of the Chicago 7 win would be the only opportunity for disappointment.) It does seem that Nomadland is the favorite if you put your ear to the ground, and if you’re picking, looking elsewhere would probably be unwise. Yet, for as much as I appreciate that movie, I’ll spend another year hoping to be surprised in this category.
Unlike other years, I’m just not sure what I’m hoping for.
I’m on the outside looking in when it comes to The Father. Though I felt it was cleverly constructed and brilliantly acted, it’s plainly not what I feel deserves this distinction. A win would be fun in that it would be unexpected, but anointing this film the year’s best feels lame.
Judas and the Black Messiah seems positioned to spring an upset, if any of these films were. It has an impressive ensemble cast and a timely narrative. It’s one of the few on this list that seems to be picking up steam in the film world, and for good reason. It was highly anticipated, but I don’t think many picked it to be (arguably) running second in this race. Pretty cool.
Mank is a bit of an uninspiring choice, though I really enjoyed the movie and continue to adore David Fincher’s work. And while Fincher does need an Oscar at some point, I’ll concede it would be a bit silly for him to win it here, considering I have Mank currently ranked 6th among his filmography.
Promising Young Woman is one I enjoyed but didn’t love, yet it’s hard not to root for an underdog. I don’t think it will win, but Emerald Fennell hitting the jackpot with her debut feature—especially as a female director—would be a very cool moment.
I have a hard time getting too invested in the idea of Sound of Metal winning, given it feels like it has the longest odds of any in this category. Were its chances any better I might be more inclined to allow myself to entertain the idea of a win. It’s really good, I love Riz Ahmed, and I was floored by Paul Raci’s performance. I’m mostly just shocked it’s even here. Even on a list with some other underdogs, it feels like the true outsider, and an outsider beating seemingly insurmountable odds to snatch the crown would be fun.
I suppose Minari is what I’ll hope for. Steven Yeun is on some kind of tear, and I want to see him up on that stage. This is a movie I think has a wide appeal, and winning Best Picture might give it the nudge it needs in finding that broader audience. Dear America, you’d really like this movie! Watch it!
My wish: Minari
My guess: Nomadland