The decade’s best year for movies was 2019. Conveniently, 2019 is also when I accidentally became consumed (re-consumed?) by the whole thing. I decided I was going to rate and review all the movies I watched—mostly as a way to track my watching habits and do some micro-writing. Well, 102 movies later, I created a monster out of myself.
Now I’m a Letterboxd Film Bro with a Google Doc to track the dozens of movies on my radar for the rest of 2020. It’s officially out of hand.
A consequence of this new direction in my life is getting to experience the Academy Awards as they’re meant to be: Fired up and angry over relatively meaningless recognition for people who don’t know I exist. But this is my life now and so I’ll play the game.
Behold, predictions and wishes for my first (real) Oscars experience.
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Best International Feature
Spain, “Pain and Glory”
France, “Les Misérables”
North Macedonia, “Honeyland”
Poland, “Corpus Christi”
Wish: South Korea, Parasite
Guess: South Korea, Parasite
There’s a buzz around Pain and Glory, and to a lesser extend Honeyland, but with a genuine Best Picture contender in the mix, this race should be all but locked up. It’s the Oscar Bingo free space. Parasite is your winner.
Best Animated Feature
“How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World”
“I Lost My Body”
“Klaus”
Wish: Missing Link
Guess: Toy Story 4
I’m a Missing Link fan. I also liked Toy Story 4, and felt it was probably, objectively, the better movie of the two. That being said, the former pulling off the surprise Golden Globes win was cool, and I’d like to see a repeat. Pixar dominates this category, and I’d rather not see them win for the fourth movie in a series they claimed to have ended a decade ago. (Don’t count out Klaus.)
Best Production Design
Wish: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Guess: 1917
The 1917 folks dug a mile-long trench in some field in England, and also constructed a burning city, so I’d imagine they’ll win. Objectively, they probably deserve it, but don’t count out Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, a movie bolstered by its whole ~vibe~ and whatnot. The outfits and old-Hollywood sets alone make it deserving, and my personal favorite for this award.
Best Original Score
“Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker,” John Williams
Wish: Marriage Story, Randy Newman
Guess: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, John Williams
I haven’t even seen Star Wars, but John Williams is one of the few who is automatically a prohibitive favorite any time he’s nominated. If the academy decides to stray from tradition, I think Randy Newman (another legacy type) is there to scoop up a trophy. This was a great year for scores. Little Women, Parasite, and even The Last Black Man in San Francisco (which was snubbed) are Oscar-worthy.
Best Cinematography
Wish: The Lighthouse, Jarin Blaschke
Guess: 1917, Roger Deakins
As with the previous category, let me start by saying The Last Black Man in San Francisco was snubbed. And again, like the previous category, there isn’t really a wrong choice here. All of these movies were really elevated by their cinematography. I’m partial to The Lighthouse, in part because it’s somehow A24’s lone nomination and in part because the cinematography was a huge narrative surrounding the movie. Buuuut… Roger Deakins made a one-shot World War I movie. He’s got this locked up, right? (Dumb that Parasite was not nominated.)
Best Actor In A Supporting Role
Wish: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Guess: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
This will be an interesting race to follow because I think Pitt is the big favorite, but it’s hard to count out long shots Hanks and Hopkins because of their resume. Meanwhile, Pacino and Pesci came out of varying levels of retirement for this, although their dueling nominations may cancel each other out. Against my better judgement, I’m predicting my favorite will win. Brad Pitt’s Cliff Booth was one of my favorite parts of a loaded 2019.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Margot Robbie, “Bombshell”
Kathy Bates, “Richard Jewell”
Wish: Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Guess: Laura Dern, Marriage Story
My heart wants Florence Pugh. She had a big 2019 and capped it off with a great performance in Little Women. But I think this one will end up being Dern. She came out throwing fireballs in Marriage Story (her long-take entrance was awesome), and her performance probably elevated that movie more than any other nominee in this category. This year’s supporting actor and actress races will be fun to follow because of their high potential for surprises. A pair of clear frontrunners makes me nervous.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Antonio Banderas, “Pain and Glory”
Wish: Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Guess: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Joaquin Phoenix is winning this, which is fine. He’s a terrific actor and he, unsurprisingly, submersed himself in this role. I just have a hard time rallying behind his deserving performance because I did not buy in to Joker. Driver and DiCaprio are 1a and 1b here, and I’d be happy with either. But we saw how long it took Leo to finally get his Oscar. Let’s not head down that road with Driver. He’s arguably the best actor working right now. Just give him the trophy.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Renée Zellweger, “Judy”
Charlize Theron, “Bombshell”
Cynthia Erivo, “Harriet”
Wish: Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Guess: Renée Zellweger, Judy
Saoirse Ronan just got her fourth Oscar nomination. She’s picked up a Leading Actress nomination three times since 2016. She is 25 years old. Give her a trophy before it starts to look weird.
Choosing my favorite among this group was tricky, but Little Women’s surprising freshness is thanks in large part to Ronan, who was seemingly born to play this role. I’d also love to see Johansson win here, especially since it seems like Adam Driver is going to get shut out. She was fantastic in Marriage Story, especially considering she was stuck playing the foil to Driver’s unstoppable force.
That said, this race is Zellweger’s to lose. Prove me wrong, Academy.
Best Director
Wish: Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Guess: Sam Mendes, 1917
Sam Mendes can have this one if it means Bong gets Best Picture. Unfortunately, I think that’s a good chance things go down the other way, with Bong winning here and Mendes winning Best Picture.
My pessimism is at an all-time high, and I worry Mendes will sweep Best Director and Best Picture. This category is where my night will start to hit the next level of intrigue.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Wish: Little Women
Guess: Jojo Rabbit
Greta Gerwig took a story published in 1868 and made it feel totally fresh, relevant, and alive in 2019. If that isn’t grounds for Best Adapted Screenplay, I don’t know what we’re doing here.
Best Original Screenplay
Wish: Parasite
Guess: Parasite
I hope Bong and the boys really let it fly during this acceptance speech, because I think this will unfortunately be the peak of their night. Once Upon A Time, Knives Out, and Marriage Story are all very airtight screenplays, which makes Parasite’s inside-track position all the more impressive. What an incredible movie, and what an impressive, unprecedented awards run.
Best Picture
Wish: Parasite
Guess: 1917
Only the Oscars can make me turn against a movie I enjoyed by giving it Best Picture. I can’t pretend to hate 1917, but I also certainly can’t pretend like it was anywhere near the best movie released last year. Mendes choreographed a thrill ride that would make Walt Disney jealous, but 1917 lacks the depth and nuance we should expect from a film set to receive the industry’s most prestigious award.
Meanwhile, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood finds itself nearly entirely outside the Oscar picture. I expect Pitt will win for Best Supporting Actor, but otherwise the summer’s Academy Awards juggernaut is going to find itself on the outside looking in… but not nearly as outside as The Irishman—a really impressive piece of work that I expect will be totally blanked on Sunday. What a weird year for movies.
For as discouraged as I’ll be by its loss, it’s a testament to the power of Parasite that the first South Korean movie ever nominated for Best International Feature finds itself ON THE DOORSTEP OF BEST PICTURE with a puncher’s chance at springing the upset.
I’ll also credit Parasite for giving me reason to watch The Oscars with the anticipation of a playoff game—despite fully expecting to be frustrated. Movies are good.